The Red Line

future.”

“It had better, Comrade General.”

“Everyone in this room fully understands the consequences should we fail. But a close assessment of our opponent shows that victory is all but assured. When we totaled up the force we’ll face within Germany itself, it came to 450,000. Their air forces consist of eight American fighter wings, three British, and fourteen German. They can muster eleven armored divisions—eight German, two American, and one British. In all, there are less than four thousand tanks waiting to oppose us. In a war as swift and decisive as this one, it is unlikely the Americans and British will be able to significantly reinforce the army we’ll face in the field.”

“But conquer Germany in five days, Yovanovich. Are you certain?”

“Comrade Premier, I’d stake my life on it. By the end of January, we’ll have mustered 150 divisions. We’ll be able to place a little over two million soldiers on the battlefield; 105 of these divisions are first-line. The remaining forty-five are reserve units with older T-62 tanks. In total manpower, we’ll outnumber the enemy five to one. In air forces, our advantage will be three to one. In tanks, greater than twelve to one. And in artillery, twenty to one.”

“But, Comrade General,” Cheninko said, “certainly you know superior numbers aren’t enough to ensure victory. What about the other factors . . . the sophisticated technology of the West, the fact that the Germans will be fighting on their own soil, and so on?”

There was firmness in Yovanovich’s voice. “You’re correct, Comrade Premier. Superior numbers won’t be enough. That’s why we’ve left nothing to chance.”

Even the field marshals were beginning to be infected with Yovanovich’s confidence. The Director of Operations was a shrewd man. And shrewd men didn’t make statements that would lead to the living hell of the death camps unless they were certain of what they were saying.

“The fact that the Germans will be fighting on their own soil will actually be to our advantage, Comrade Premier,” Yovanovich said. “We’re certain the Americans and British will grudgingly trade ground for time in order to gain a tactical advantage. They’ll be satisfied to dig in and force us to fight a costly war of attrition against strongly fortified defensive positions. But the Germans will feel the panic of the loss of their homeland. They’ll feel the pressure to save their countrymen from our advancing armies. They’ll be unable to show the patience a defensive army must demonstrate. Their panic will cause them to make mistakes.”

“Such a point, Comrade Yovanovich, is well taken.”

“My staff’s convinced the Germans are going to blunder. And our plan’s been designed to take advantage of every error.”

A smile came to Cheninko’s face. For the first time, he suspected that what Yovanovich was saying was actually true.

“We’re going to take Germany in five days,” Cheninko said.

It was time to throw caution to the wind and jump on Yovanovich’s bandwagon. “Yes, Comrade Premier,” the Commander of Army Group Central said. “As General Yovanovich said, we’re going to take Germany in five days.”

“All right, Yovanovich,” Cheninko said. “So far, I’m convinced. Tell me about this plan of yours.”

“Comrade Cheninko, let’s start with the first of the four elements—deception. You’re going to play a critical role in this part of our operation. As you are aware, sometime ago we told the world that the reunited Warsaw Pact would soon hold its first war games. This week, you’ll announce that those war games will be the largest in history. The world will hear that fifty of our divisions will conduct this exercise right on the border with Germany.”

“But, Comrade General, the West will scream to the high heavens if I make such an outrageous announcement,” Cheninko said.

“Of course they will. But at the same time, you’ll also announce a reopening of the SALT-VI nuclear disarmament talks. The Americans will be so relieved by your sudden willingness to resume the disarmament discussions that they’ll ignore the threat posed by our war games. With honey in your voice, you’ll tell the world a few days later that you wish a summit meeting with Fromisch as soon as the German elections are concluded. You’ll stop making speeches the West would find even the least bit threatening. And through diplomatic channels, you’ll begin making quiet overtures toward the Americans, British, and French. This, of course, will all be a ruse to hide our true intentions. In fact, even your announcement of fifty-division war games will be a lie. With your sweet words to protect us, we’re not going to send fifty divisions to the German border. We’re going to send the entire 150.”

“Comrade General, that’s fine. I’ll deceive the diplomats. But how do you propose we deceive the American satellites that spy on our country every moment of the day? We’ll need at least four full weeks of straining every last resource of the Soviet Union to bring 150 divisions to the jumping-off point for the attack. The Americans will recognize what we’re up to on the very first day.”

“Deception, Comrade Premier, deception. In the next two weeks, we’ll secretly repaint the unit designators on every vehicle of our armies. The Americans are so proud of their satellites’ ability to ‘read the numbers on every truck in the Soviet Union’ that they’ll help with our deception. The equipment rolling forward will have the designations of exactly fifty divisions. No more, no less.”

“But, Comrade General, the Americans can count, can’t they?” the Premier said. “They know how many tanks make up fifty divisions.”

A grin came to Yovanovich’s handsome face. “The Americans know the only way we can get so much equipment to the war-games site is by rail. They’ll anticipate massive use of our railway system. We’ll use that to our advantage. We know what time their spy satellites typically photograph each area each day. So what we’re going to do is make up many of our trains with identical cargoes. Say tanks being carried on the first three cars, followed by six BMPs on the next three, followed by a certain number of artillery pieces, and three more cars carrying tanks. It will take precise timing. But we’re sending the trains west on an exact schedule. Every time a spy satellite takes a picture in a particular area, it’ll see what appears to be the same train sitting at the same place in one of our rail yards. The Americans will see what they’ll think is one train, when in fact it’ll be a different train every day.”

“Will such a ruse work?”

Valexi Yovanovich gave an honest answer. “That I cannot guarantee, Comrade Premier. I know it won’t work forever. Nevertheless, I believe it’s going to work long enough for us to surprise our enemies. Because in addition to the trains, we’ll use the weather to our advantage. Our meteorologists tell us central Europe is blanketed by heavy clouds 80 to 90 percent of the time in the month of January. So many of the spies in space won’t be able to see exactly what we’re doing as long as the clouds are there to protect us.”

“But, General Yovanovich,” Cheninko said, “paint and clouds will help us confuse the satellites, but what about the spies the enemy has placed in our midst? By the second day of our efforts, the Americans will be receiving reports that something strange is going on. How do we stop that?”

“Comrade Premier, I don’t propose we stop such reports at all. Instead of stopping them, which would only increase the Americans’ suspicions, we’re going to add to the reports. Using our double agents, we’ll also report unusual activity in the Soviet Union. However, the reports from the double agents will do something the others won’t. Their reports will explain the reason for such activity.”

“And what will that be?”

“If you’ll excuse my bluntness, Comrade Premier, the Americans would like nothing better than to see you overthrown. So we’ll feed them reports that the actions within the Soviet Union involve an attempted coup. I mean no disrespect, but they’ll be so overjoyed by the possibility of your overthrow, they’ll eagerly ignore any other reports. The Americans will see only what

they choose to see.”

“My overthrow . . . very good, Yovanovich. That’s just devious enough to be something I’d have come up with.”

“Thank you, Comrade Premier. But there’s still more to our deception. On the evening of the beginning of our battle to liberate the German people from the Nazis, we’ll deceive the Americans once again. We’ve known for years that they believe they can defeat us because of our centralized leadership structure. Within a few hours of the beginning of the war, they’ll send their aircraft to kill each of your field commanders and all the members of their staffs. As they did to the Iraqis in both their wars against them, they’ll first attempt to destroy our air defenses, then wipe out our command and control. The Americans won’t realize until it’s too late, but our field headquarters won’t be where they believe.”

“Oh? And where will they be?”

“They’ll be anywhere but where the Americans think. At the last possible moment, under the cover of darkness, we’ll move all our command elements. We’ll continue to move them to avoid their destruction. My staff has drawn up detailed plans for such movements and will furnish them to our field commanders at the appropriate time. To assist their survival, we’ve also developed a scheme to make the Americans believe our field headquarters have been eliminated. That’ll buy your field marshals and generals further time to conduct the war rather than concerning themselves with Stealth fighters coming in the dead of night to end their lives.”

“I’m sure the Army Group Central and Army Group North Commanders were relieved to hear that.” With a widening grin, Cheninko looked at the two field marshals.

A smile came to both the field marshals’ faces. “Yes, we were, Comrade Premier,” the Army Group Central Commander said.

Cheninko turned back to Yovanovich. “Go on, General.”

“Finally, to complete our deception, we’ll let the Americans fool themselves once more. The Americans believe we’d never attack Germany during bad weather. They’re convinced we could never sustain such a war if we attacked in anything but the best possible conditions. Their beliefs are correct. At least, they’re correct if we were planning a drawn-out campaign. But we aren’t. We’re planning a five-day war. By attacking in the worst possible weather, we’ll catch our opponent unprepared. We’ll also have the added benefit of the weather hampering the American’s fighter aircraft and attack helicopters. So our proposal to you, Comrade Premier, is that on the worst night during the last week of January or first week in February, we begin our quest to liberate Germany.”