The Red Line

“Even so, keep after it, Chet. If we can find a way to discredit him and keep him from being elected without anyone finding out what we did, I’d be a happy man. With a guy with Fromisch’s past, there must be tons of things we could dig up on him.”

“I’ve got some of my best people working on it, sir. But after how poorly the German government did during the civil war in East Germany, there doesn’t seem to be much hope of turning them away from Fromisch no matter what nasty little things we come up with between now and April. And with the Russians mobilizing at this very moment, we’ve got a lot more pressing problems than Fromisch. Within a month, we could find ourselves in the middle of a full-fledged war if we don’t act and act fast.”

“Mr. President, let me reiterate again that State Department sources tell us the Russian mobilizations have occurred because of serious threats to the Cheninko regime. Not because of some so-called plan to invade Germany,” the Secretary of State said. “I can understand the CIA and military’s concern. But there’s no threat to us whatsoever. Premier Cheninko has privately assured me that the rumors of an attempted coup are, in fact, true. He’s asked that we not overreact to what are nothing more than the internal struggles of the Soviet people.”

The President turned back to the Director of the CIA. “What do you think, Chet?”

“I believe, Mr. President, that there’s more to this than a few hotheads trying to overthrow Cheninko.”

“Do you know that for sure?” the President asked.

“No, sir, I don’t. The reports from our operatives in Eastern Europe are not at all consistent. Some of our most reliable sources are telling us there was, and still is, a real threat to the Cheninko regime. But . . .”

“Boy, wouldn’t it be nice to see that bastard overthrown,” the President said.

“Yes, sir, it would,” the Secretary of State said. “And even if he’s not overthrown, this is bound to play right into our hands. My people are convinced that this attempted coup is the reason why Cheninko’s made so many gestures of peace in the past few weeks.”

“So, Mike, you’re fairly certain Cheninko’s trying to protect his rear with this alleged mobilization?” the President said to the Secretary of State.

“Yes, Mr. President. This is nothing more than a power struggle within the Soviet Communist Party. For the past one hundred years, they’ve had them every so often, just like clockwork. This one’s no different.”

“Mr. President,” the Secretary of Defense, his voice hoarse from his recent throat-cancer surgery, said, “if Cheninko was afraid of losing his grip on the Communist Party, why did he send fifty of his best armored divisions to the German border?”

The President turned back to the Secretary of State. “Well, Mike, have you got an answer to that one?”

“Sure. He announced there’d be war games weeks ago. If he calls them off, he looks vulnerable to those wishing to succeed him. And he also looks weak to his allies in the Warsaw Pact. He’s got plenty of divisions available to protect his interests in Moscow. Why call off the war games and admit there’s a problem within his regime? If he did so, he’d be encouraging those who oppose him.”

“Mr. President, let me reiterate again, the intelligence community’s convinced the Russians are up to no good. This overthrow thing’s a red herring to throw us off the track,” the Director of the CIA said.

“But can you prove that, Chet?”

“No, Mr. President, we can’t. The satellites tell us something’s going on that isn’t quite right. And many of our operatives are saying the same thing. But there’s nothing you’d call proof.”

“Mr. President, if I could interject here,” General Larsen said. “As we speak, there are fifty Russian divisions waiting to begin three weeks of so-called war games on the border with Germany. If we don’t move this minute to reinforce our forces and evacuate our civilians, we’re going to be too late.”

“Mr. President, my people,” the Secretary of State said, “have been working day and night for the past three years to come to terms with the Cheninko government. With the gestures Cheninko’s made in the past month, we’ve finally got an opportunity to normalize relations. If you do what General Larsen’s advocating, you’ll be sabotaging the State Department’s efforts. The SALT-VI negotiations are scheduled to begin next week. If we do what our military’s proposing, the Russians are bound to back out of those talks.”

“Mr. Ambassador, you’ve been sitting here taking this all in. What do you think we should do?”

“Well, Mr. President,” the ancient politician, darling of the party, said. “I’ve been meeting with the Russians face-to-face for over a year. And while I don’t trust the Communist sons of bitches, I believe the Secretary of State’s correct in his assessment of the situation. We’ve never had a better opportunity to deal with Cheninko than we do now. I’ve sat staring out my window in the embassy in Moscow watching the strange events, and I’ve reached the same conclusion as the Secretary of State. The rumors on the streets in Moscow say that the mobilization is in response to an internal struggle for power.”

“And you believe those rumors are true?”

“Yes, Mr. President, I do.”

It was becoming painfully obvious to the three who favored an immediate response to the Russian threat that they were losing the argument.

“Mr. President,” the Secretary of Defense said, “if you don’t order a full mobilization of our armed forces, I want you to understand the consequences. We can’t win a ground war in Europe if the Russians attack.”

“And we’ll lose any opportunity to win the Second Cold War if we choose to do anything as provocative as mobilizing our military every time the Communists sneeze,” the Secretary of State said.

“Very well. I’ve heard both sides. Does anyone have anything further to add?”

When no one responded, the President announced his decision. Like all decisions in Washington, he knew the losers had to be allowed to save face.

“Mike, I want you to prepare a communiqué to Premier Cheninko. I want it sent under my signature. Express, once again, our displeasure with his decision to conduct his war games so close to the German border. Tell him in the strongest possible terms that I’ll hold him personally responsible for any incidents between his forces and ours. Make it clear the United States will not tolerate any further acts of aggression against members of NATO.”

“Yes, Mr. President,” the Secretary of State said, doing his best to hide the glee he felt from his triumph.

“I also want everyone to understand,” the President said, while looking at the losers, “that this decision’s not irreversible. Bring me proof the Russians are preparing to attack, and I’ll change it immediately. Is that clear?”

All present nodded, stood, and filed from the room. As protocol demanded, the winners didn’t start slapping themselves on the back until the losers were out of sight.

The Americans had taken the bait.

America’s best chance for victory had been thwarted. There would be no mobilization of the country’s military forces in time to meet the grievous threat.

• • •

“Mr. President, we’ve got the proof,” the Director of the CIA said into the secure phone line. “We’re convinced the Russians are planning an attack in central Europe. I need an audience with you immediately.”

“That’s fine, Chet. Inform the Secretary of Defense and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. How much time are you going to need?”

“At least an hour.”

“All right, I’ll clear my schedule from three this afternoon on. How’s that?”

“Just fine, sir. I’ll notify the Secretary and Chairman and bring my best analyst to show you what we’ve found.”

“Okay, Chet. You’re on for three.”

On January 25, three days prior to the Russian attack, t

he CIA had gathered enough information to have a legitimate chance of overturning the President’s earlier decision.

CHAPTER 11

January 25—3:00 p.m. (Eastern Standard Time)

The Oval Office, the White House

Washington, D.C.

When the Director of the CIA arrived at the White House with his photo analyst, his nemesis, the Secretary of State, was waiting.

“Chet, the President told me you’ve uncovered some information about a big Soviet plot to attack Germany,” the Secretary of State said.

“That’s right, Mike. My boys have come up with some pretty convincing evidence.”

“Before we go in to see the President, mind sharing what you’ve found?”

“As a matter of fact, Mike, I do.” And with that, the Director of the CIA turned and walked into the waiting area outside the Oval Office.

General Larsen and the Secretary of Defense arrived. The group was ushered into the President’s office. After the usual pleasantries, the President got right to the point.